The Asia-Pacific economic outlook for the second half of the year has improved modestly, led by a rebound in electronics and semiconductor exports. South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam all reported double-digit year-on-year export growth in recent months, helped by AI-related demand and inventory restocking in the technology supply chain.
Domestic demand, however, remains uneven. China's consumer spending is still soft, weighed down by the property sector slowdown and cautious household balance sheets. India continues to outgrow the region on the back of infrastructure investment and services exports, though inflation remains above the central bank's comfort zone.
Monetary policy is diverging. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep rates elevated until inflation convincingly moderates, while the Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand may begin easing later this year if growth and inflation cooperate. Indonesia is managing currency volatility ahead of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
For commodity markets, the regional growth picture matters for both precious metals and semiconductors. Stronger Asian electronics demand supports silver industrial consumption, while resilient Indian and Chinese jewelry buying underpins gold physical demand. A synchronized global easing cycle would likely weaken the dollar and provide additional support for metal prices.
MetalSemi Asia expects Asia-Pacific GDP growth to stabilize around 4.5% in 2024, with North Asian technology exporters outperforming and Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs benefiting from supply-chain diversification. The key risks are a sharper-than-expected China slowdown and geopolitical disruptions to shipping lanes.
