During Tuesday's Asian session on August 5, 2026, the precious metals market extended the sharp volatility seen after Friday's nonfarm payrolls release. Spot gold consolidated at highs in the narrow range of $2,840-2,850/oz, briefly touching $2,852; spot silver held firmly above $32, trading in the $32.10-32.40 range. As of 14:00 Beijing time, London gold was quoted at $2,847/oz, up 0.3% on the day, while New York silver stood at $32.25/oz, up 0.6%. As the market digests the shock of the weak jobs report, it is repricing the Fed's monetary policy path, while sustained physical buying from Asia provides solid support for gold and silver prices.
Nonfarm Payroll Aftershock: Rate-Cut Expectations Surge
US July nonfarm payrolls, released Friday (July 31), came in well below expectations at 89,000 new jobs versus the forecast 145,000, the smallest increase since 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, and average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.6% year over year. After the release, federal funds futures showed the market's probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut in September jumped from below 30% to 65%, with cumulative easing expectations this year exceeding 75 basis points.
The surprisingly weak data became the biggest macro driver for precious metals this week. The dollar index tumbled after the release, breaking below 104 and hovering near 103.6, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.92%, and lower real rates further reduced gold's opportunity cost, fueling the push toward record highs.
Asian Session: Physical Buying Underpins Gold at Highs
Compared with the sharp swings in US and European markets, Asian-session gold and silver prices showed greater resilience. Data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange showed the gold T+D contract opened at CNY 647/gram in the morning, with its premium over the converted international price around CNY 12/gram, near a two-week high. This reflects still-strong physical gold demand across Asia, especially in China, India, and Southeast Asia.
“After the payrolls release, Asian investors bought the dip instead of panic selling,” said Kevin Wong, chief market strategist at Singapore precious metals dealer Silver Bullion Pte. “Retail clients’ interest in gold bars and coins keeps rising, while central banks and sovereign wealth funds have not slowed their gold purchases. This structural buying is a key reason gold has stabilized quickly.”
Meanwhile, silver outperformed on industrial demand. Demand from Asia's electronics and solar industries is at a seasonal peak, and London silver inventories fell 3.2% over the past month, the fifth straight monthly decline. The tightening physical supply-demand balance has made silver relatively stronger than gold, with the gold/silver ratio falling from 80.5 at the start of the month to 79.2, edging closer to below 78.
Technical Outlook: $2,850 Is the Bull-Bear Divide
Technically, $2,850 is a key psychological level and resistance for gold. In mid-July, gold failed twice to break above it, and the post-payroll rally on August 1 again approached this level. If gold can hold above $2,850 intraday, it may open room toward $2,865 and even $2,900; otherwise, initial support lies at $2,830, with stronger support at $2,810 (the 20-day moving average).
Silver's technical picture is more bullish. Spot silver has broken above the downtrend line from its June high, the daily MACD has flashed a golden cross, and the relative strength index (RSI) sits near 58, still below overbought territory. The next major target is $35 to the upside, but the $32.80 area may see selling pressure from prior trapped positions.
Notably, gold and silver face near-term technical pullback risk. The post-payroll rally has pushed prices up for three straight sessions, with gains exceeding 3%, prompting some short-term profit-taking. However, as long as Fed rate-cut expectations do not reverse, any pullback should be limited and the uptrend remains intact.
Institutional Views: Bullish Sentiment Strengthens, Targets Raised
After the jobs report, several Wall Street banks rushed to raise their precious metals forecasts. Goldman Sachs lifted its fourth-quarter 2026 gold target from $2,900 to $3,100 in its latest report, citing “the dual tailwinds of Fed easing and central bank gold buying.” JPMorgan sees silver reaching $38 by end-2026 because “incremental demand from solar and EV industries is absorbing silver inventories.”
Meanwhile, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings jump 8.6 tonnes to 955.2 tonnes on August 4, the biggest one-day increase in nearly three months, indicating institutional money is accelerating into gold. CFTC data also showed speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures rose about 12% and silver net longs jumped 18% in the week through July 28, reflecting a marked recovery in sentiment.
Today's Strategy: Trade the Trend, Watch Economic Data
For ordinary investors, the precious metals market is in a phase of macro tailwinds and high volatility. Short-term traders should watch tonight's US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI. If it weakens further, gold may stage its first convincing break above $2,850; if it beats expectations, watch for a short-term pullback in gold and silver.
Medium-to-long-term investors may consider adding positions in tranches if gold pulls back below $2,830, or use dollar-cost averaging to smooth volatility risk. They should also closely track Fed speakers — several officials, including New York Fed President Williams, are due to speak this week, and their tone will directly influence rate-cut expectations.
Overall, with the macro narrative unchanged, the bull market for gold and silver remains intact. Asian-session quotes show the market is waiting for a fresh catalyst to confirm the next leg higher. Both gold's $2,850 threshold and silver's $33 round level are fierce battlegrounds at the start of the week. Investors should stay patient, follow the trend, control leverage and position sizes, and navigate the volatility steadily.
